Eeek! In the craziness of preparing for my PhD defense (which is on Monday), I almost forgot to post predictions for the finals! Anyway, the model (which struggled again last round) picks NYR quite strongly; and (in case anyone thinks I'm only saying this because they're up 2-1 right now) you can see this in my last post - by comparing NYR's predicted odds against Montreal and their odds of winning the cup, which were very similar because the model strongly picks NYR over either LA or Chicago - that the model indeed picks NYR.
I will post a more detailed post-mortem on last round after my defense, but here are the picks in the meantime:
NYR over LA in 6 (Logit model: 91% chance of NYR win; Continuous model: E[W%] = 0.65 (CI: 0.32, 0.98))
Despite my model's struggles this year (which I think are in large part due to key injuries and trade deadline trades on key teams (e.g. NYR, LAK, MTL, Tampa Bay)), my hockey gut tells me this prediction will be right, though I could see it going to 7 games again. I don't think Quick has been solid enough these playoffs to weather the NYR storm, but think that Hank is up to the challenge.
#BecauseItsTheCup
