Saturday, 30 May 2015

Final pick: Chicago in 7

Both I and the model were 2/2 this round, so nothing has changed going forward:

Final pick: Chicago over Tampa Bay in 7 (Model Pred[Wpct] = 0.56).
I think this is going to be a great series with a decent number of goals.

Prediction scores so far:
Model Predictions: 11/14 (79%) = 6/8 (Rd. 1) + 3/4 (Rd. 2) + 2/2 (Rd. 3)
My Predictions: 13/14 (93%) = 7/8 (Rd. 1) + 4/4 (Rd. 2) + 2/2 (Rd. 3)

Thursday, 14 May 2015

Round 3 Predictions: Chicago, Tampa Bay. I'm 11/12 so far.

Sad to see the Habs go, but I (and many others) predicted it. All of my picks were right this past round; the model very weakly picked Montreal, so it got one wrong. So far, the model and I have agreed on 8/12 series, of which we are 8/8; and we have disagreed on 4 series, of which I am 3/4.

Cumulative totals are:

Model Predictions: 9/12 (75%) = 6/8 (Rd. 1) + 3/4 (Rd. 2)
My Predictions: 11/12 (92%) = 7/8 (Rd. 1) + 4/4 (Rd. 2)

Here are the predictions for the next round (mine, needless to say, have not changed). The model and I now agree on a Chicago over Tampa Bay Stanley Cup Final.

Model Predictions:

Round 3:
Tampa Bay over New York Rangers (Pred[W pct] = 0.51)
Chicago over Anaheim (Pred[W pct] = 0.55)

Stanley Cup Final:
Chicago over Tampa Bay (Pred[W pct] = 0.56)

My Predictions:

Round 3:
Tampa Bay over New York Rangers in 6
Chicago over Anaheim in 7

Stanley Cup Final:
Chicago over Tampa Bay in 7