Conference Finals: Updated Predictions

With Round 2 over and Round 3 starting later today, here are the quick updated predictions. The model got 3/4 series right in Round 2 (it only got Anaheim-LAK wrong) so most of the predictions are the same as last time:

Revised Picks (Model):

Montreal vs. NYR [92% (Logit), predicted W pct  = 0.66 (CI: 0.33, 0.99)]
Chicago vs. LAK [99% (Logit), predicted W pct  = 0.80 (CI: 0.47, 1)]
Chicago vs. Montreal [66% (Logit), predicted W pct  = 0.53 (CI: 0.20, 0.86)]

Based on the predicted winning percentages, here are the revised predicted series lengths:

Chicago over LAK in 5
Montreal over NYR in 6
Montreal over Chicago in 7

And here are the predicted probabilities for each team of winning the cup (summed over all brackets):

Montreal: 60%
Chicago: 31%
NYR: 8%
LAK: 1%

Obviously, I'm a little disappointed that the model narrowly missed a perfect round, but actually, the model did predict that it would get on an average of 1 series wrong last round given the fact that the predicted margins were very narrow (see my last post for details), so I still definitely see this round as redemption for the mode compared to the first round. One could maybe argue that the Gibson start in Game 7 (which I think was a huge mistake, as much as I think Gibson is a great goalie - you can't start a rookie goalie with less than 10 games NHL experience in a Game 7 against a veteran team like that and not expect him to make some mistakes) and the Gaborik acquisition at the deadline are two key things that the model did not consider when it picked the Ducks, but I also, as I said in my last post, don't think we should read too much into model errors that were in Game 7s, as single-game series come with a lot of stochasticity.

And I'm of course thrilled that the Habs prediction is still intact. The model does strongly pick LA over the Habs though, so I'm also rooting for Chicago this round. Go Habs Go!