Round 2 Predictions: Chicago, Anaheim, New York, Tampa Bay

Not a bad first round!

All five series that the model and I agreed on were right (Chicago, Anaheim, Calgary, Washington, New York Rangers). Of the three we disagreed on, I got two right (Minnesota, Tampa Bay); the model got one (Montreal). I underestimated my Habs - emotions clearly clouding my judgment. So all in all:

Model Predictions: 6/8
My Predictions: 7/8

As a result, the predictions for the remainder of the playoffs are largely the same:

Model Predictions

Round 2:
Montreal over Tampa Bay (barely: Pred[W pct.] = 0.5008; and it should be noted that the model averages from only the variables that span the full dataset (1968-2014) pick Tampa Bay (Pred[W pct.] = 0.53).

Chicago over Minnesota (Pred[W pct.] = 0.58)

The rest of the predictions are the same as before (see Round 1 post for predicted winning percentages):

New York Rangers over Washington
Anaheim over Calgary

Round 3:
Montreal over New York Rangers
Chicago over Anaheim

Stanley Cup Final:
Chicago over Montreal

My Predictions

Round 2:
Tampa Bay over Montreal in 6. I really hope I am underestimating the Habs again, but with the Lightning healthy this time, their season series record against the Habs (5-0-0) is too decisive to ignore.

The rest of my predictions are the same as the last round's as well.

New York Rangers over Washington in 7
Chicago over Minnesota in 7
Anaheim over Calgary in 7

Round 3:
Tampa Bay over New York Rangers in 6
Chicago over Anaheim in 7

Stanley Cup Final:
Chicago over Tampa Bay in 7